São Paulo 1 x 1 Coritiba: stats and analysis

Série A 2026, round 23

São Paulo

Home

1 × 1

Coritiba

Away

Saturday, August 15 · 09:00 PMEstádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

What the model calculated before the match

Result

São Paulo win35.6%

Draw43.6%

Coritiba win20.8%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals29.3%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

São Paulo and Coritiba drew 1 to 1, Saturday, August 15, at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo and in the Série A 2026.

São Paulo had more of the ball (66% possession), shots were 12 to 7, and corners were 6 to 3.

São Paulo arrived with 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (2 of 15 points). Coritiba arrived with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (4 of 15 points).

The only recorded previous meeting ended Coritiba 0 x 1 São Paulo.

Match statistics

66%Possession34%

6On target1

12Shots7

6Corners3

15Fouls10

0Offsides2

0Saves5

2Yellow cards1

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a draw as the most likely result, and got it right. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

São PauloLDLLD

São Paulo's last matches
08/08	Grêmio 2x1 São Paulo
07/26	Flamengo 1x1 São Paulo
07/22	São Paulo 1x2 Athletico PR
05/31	Remo 1x0 São Paulo
05/23	São Paulo 1x1 Botafogo

CoritibaWLDLL

Coritiba's last matches
08/08	Coritiba 2x1 Chapecoense
07/30	Coritiba 0x1 Cruzeiro
07/26	Bragantino 0x0 Coritiba
07/22	Coritiba 1x3 Palmeiras
05/30	Flamengo 3x0 Coritiba

Head-to-head

Last matches between São Paulo and Coritiba
02/25/2026	Coritiba 0x1 São Paulo

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 23

Frequently asked questions about São Paulo vs Coritiba

What was the score of São Paulo vs Coritiba?: São Paulo 1 x 1 Coritiba, Saturday, August 15, at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, in the Série A 2026.
What did the model predict for São Paulo vs Coritiba?: The model pointed to a draw as the most likely result, and got it right.
What were the match statistics for São Paulo vs Coritiba?: São Paulo had more of the ball (66% possession), shots were 12 to 7, and corners were 6 to 3.
How did São Paulo and Coritiba arrive for this match?: São Paulo arrived with 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (2 of 15 points). Coritiba arrived with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (4 of 15 points).
Who had the upper hand in previous meetings?: The only recorded previous meeting ended Coritiba 0 x 1 São Paulo.

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.