Statistical predictions for South American football
FUT Análises calculates the probability of every result, goals, corners and cards for Brazilian league matches with four statistical models. Preview upcoming matches and compare what the models predicted against the real score.
Upcoming matches
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Next round and recent results
Full, free analyses: the next Série A and Série B matches, plus the latest finished match from each, with the real score next to what the models predicted.
Recent results
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How the predictions are made
Every match goes through four models. Dixon-Coles estimates how many goals each team should score based on their attacking and defensive strength. Elo and Bradley-Terry measure each team's relative strength from past results. XGBoost learns from recent form, shots on target, possession, standings and head-to-head history. The final prediction is the average of the four, and every calculation only uses what was known before kickoff.
Want to see every probability?
With a free account you get the analysis history, predictions for upcoming rounds and a performance comparison between the models.