Série A 2026 probabilities
After 31 rounds
We simulate the 70 remaining matches 10,000 times and count how often each team finished as champion, in the top zone and in the relegation zone. Each scoreline is drawn from the goals expected by the Dixon-Coles model.
| Team | P | Pts | Title | Libertadores | Relegation | Final points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Flamengo | 31 | 67 | 63% | 100% | 0% | 81 |
| 2Palmeiras | 31 | 66 | 37% | 100% | 0% | 80 |
| 3Athletico PR | 31 | 53 | 0% | 72% | 0% | 64 |
| 4Cruzeiro | 31 | 51 | 0% | 42% | 0% | 62 |
| 5Fluminense | 31 | 51 | 0% | 51% | 0% | 63 |
| 6Atlético Mineiro | 31 | 50 | 0% | 20% | 0% | 60 |
| 7Bahia | 31 | 49 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 59 |
| 8Santos | 31 | 45 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 55 |
| 9São Paulo | 31 | 42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 51 |
| 10Bragantino | 31 | 41 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 51 |
| 11Botafogo | 31 | 39 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 48 |
| 12Coritiba | 31 | 39 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 46 |
| 13Vitória | 31 | 37 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 45 |
| 14Mirassol | 31 | 36 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 45 |
| 15Vasco da Gama | 30 | 35 | 0% | 0% | 19% | 43 |
| 16Corinthians | 31 | 33 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 42 |
| 17Internacional | 31 | 32 | 0% | 0% | 50% | 41 |
| 18Grêmio | 31 | 31 | 0% | 0% | 79% | 38 |
| 19Remo | 31 | 26 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 33 |
| 20Chapecoense | 30 | 18 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 23 |
How to read it
Each percentage is the share of simulations in which it happened. Libertadores counts the top 4 places; relegation, the bottom 4. "Final points" is the average points at the end of the season.
The simulation uses two independent Poisson draws from the expected goals, without the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores, which matters little over a full season of points.
Top scorers
Goals in the competition and the projection for the end of the season, keeping the player current rate.
| Player | Goals | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| 1Kevin ViverosAthletico PR | 17 | 20.8 |
| 2PedroFlamengo | 16 | 19.6 |
| 3Gabriel BarbosaSantos | 13 | 15.9 |
| 4DaniloBotafogo | 10 | 12.3 |
| 5RenêVitória | 10 | 12.3 |
| 6Carlos ViníciusGrêmio | 9 | 11.0 |
| 7John KennedyFluminense | 9 | 11.0 |
| 8José Manuel LópezPalmeiras | 9 | 11.0 |
| 9Matheus PereiraCruzeiro | 9 | 11.0 |
| 10Samuel LinoFlamengo | 9 | 11.0 |
The projection assumes the player is available for every match his team has left. It does not account for injury, suspension or transfer.
Best attacks
- 1Flamengo611.97 per match
- 2Palmeiras541.74 per match
- 3Cruzeiro501.61 per match
- 4Athletico PR491.58 per match
- 5Fluminense491.58 per match
Best defences
- 1Palmeiras220.71 per match
- 2Flamengo250.81 per match
- 3Atlético Mineiro351.13 per match
- 4São Paulo351.13 per match
- 5Bragantino361.16 per match
Statistical estimate, not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.