Mirassol 2 x 1 Grêmio: stats and analysis

Série A 2026, round 19

Mirassol

Home

2 × 1

Grêmio

Away

Friday, July 17 · 08:00 PMEstádio José Maria de Campos Maia

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Mirassol win43.4%

Draw27.3%

Grêmio win29.3%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals29.8%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Mirassol beat Grêmio 2 to 1 at home, Friday, July 17, at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia and in the Série A 2026.

Grêmio had more of the ball (55% possession), shots were 11 to 7, and corners were 5 to 4.

Mirassol arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points). Grêmio arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points).

The only recorded previous meeting ended Grêmio 0 x 1 Mirassol.

Match statistics

45%Possession55%

3On target4

11Shots7

5Corners4

14Fouls9

0Offsides1

3Saves1

1Yellow cards3

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Mirassol win as the most likely result, and got it right. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

MirassolLLWWL

Mirassol's last matches
05/30	Athletico PR 1x0 Mirassol
05/26	Lanús 1x0 Mirassol
05/23	Mirassol 1x0 Fluminense
05/19	Always Ready 1x2 Mirassol
05/16	Atlético Mineiro 3x1 Mirassol

GrêmioLWDWL

Grêmio's last matches
05/30	Grêmio 1x3 Corinthians
05/23	Grêmio 3x2 Santos
05/17	Bahia 1x1 Grêmio
05/14	Confiança 0x3 Grêmio
05/10	Grêmio 0x1 Flamengo

Head-to-head

Last matches between Mirassol and Grêmio
09/13/2025	Grêmio 0x1 Mirassol

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 19

Frequently asked questions about Mirassol vs Grêmio

What was the score of Mirassol vs Grêmio?: Mirassol 2 x 1 Grêmio, Friday, July 17, at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, in the Série A 2026.
What did the model predict for Mirassol vs Grêmio?: The model pointed to a Mirassol win as the most likely result, and got it right.
What were the match statistics for Mirassol vs Grêmio?: Grêmio had more of the ball (55% possession), shots were 11 to 7, and corners were 5 to 4.
How did Mirassol and Grêmio arrive for this match?: Mirassol arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points). Grêmio arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points).
Who had the upper hand in previous meetings?: The only recorded previous meeting ended Grêmio 0 x 1 Mirassol.

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.