São Bernardo 0 x 1 Fortaleza: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 4

São Bernardo

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0 × 1

Fortaleza

Away

Sunday, April 12 · 06:00 PMEstádio Humberto de Alencar Castelo Branco

What the model calculated before the match

Result

São Bernardo win55.2%

Draw24.3%

Fortaleza win20.5%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals100.0%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Fortaleza beat São Bernardo 1 to 0 away from home, Sunday, April 12, at Estádio Humberto de Alencar Castelo Branco and in the Série B 2026.

Fortaleza had more of the ball (51% possession), shots were 11 to 15, and corners were 4 to 6.

São Bernardo arrived with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (8 of 15 points). Fortaleza arrived with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (10 of 15 points).

Match statistics

49%Possession51%

2On target6

11Shots15

4Corners6

10Fouls17

2Offsides1

5Saves3

1Yellow cards3

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a São Bernardo win as the most likely result, and the result was different. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

São BernardoWLDDW

São Bernardo's last matches
04/05	Botafogo SP 1x2 São Bernardo
04/02	São Bernardo 1x2 Operário PR
03/21	Ceará 1x1 São Bernardo
03/17	São Bernardo 0x0 Ceará
03/10	Joinville 0x1 São Bernardo

FortalezaWDLWW

Fortaleza's last matches
04/04	Fortaleza 2x1 Juventude
03/31	Fortaleza 0x0 Cuiabá
03/21	Botafogo SP 4x0 Fortaleza
03/17	Nova Iguaçu 0x1 Fortaleza
03/11	Manauara 0x1 Fortaleza

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 4

Frequently asked questions about São Bernardo vs Fortaleza

What was the score of São Bernardo vs Fortaleza?: São Bernardo 0 x 1 Fortaleza, Sunday, April 12, at Estádio Humberto de Alencar Castelo Branco, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for São Bernardo vs Fortaleza?: The model pointed to a São Bernardo win as the most likely result, and the result was different.
What were the match statistics for São Bernardo vs Fortaleza?: Fortaleza had more of the ball (51% possession), shots were 11 to 15, and corners were 4 to 6.
How did São Bernardo and Fortaleza arrive for this match?: São Bernardo arrived with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (8 of 15 points). Fortaleza arrived with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (10 of 15 points).

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.