Náutico 1 x 0 Ponte Preta: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 3

Náutico

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1 × 0

Ponte Preta

Away

Saturday, April 4 · 06:00 PMEstádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Náutico win37.3%

Draw31.8%

Ponte Preta win30.9%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals50.0%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Náutico beat Ponte Preta 1 to 0 at home, Saturday, April 4, at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho and in the Série B 2026.

Náutico had more of the ball (69% possession), shots were 18 to 4, and corners were 17 to 3.

Náutico arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points). Ponte Preta arrived with 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 4 matches (4 of 12 points).

Match statistics

69%Possession31%

6On target4

18Shots4

17Corners3

14Fouls21

0Offsides1

3Saves5

3Yellow cards1

0Red cards2

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Náutico win as the most likely result, and got it right. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

NáuticoWLLLW

Náutico's last matches
04/01	Atlético GO 1x2 Náutico
03/22	Náutico 0x1 Criciúma
05/20	Náutico 1x2 São Paulo
04/29	São Paulo 2x1 Náutico
03/12	Vitória 0x2 Náutico

Ponte PretaDLLW

Ponte Preta's last matches
04/01	Ponte Preta 1x1 Ceará
03/22	Athletic Club 2x1 Ponte Preta
03/18	Atlético GO 1x0 Ponte Preta
03/10	Ponte Preta 1x0 Guarany de Bagé

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 3

Frequently asked questions about Náutico vs Ponte Preta

What was the score of Náutico vs Ponte Preta?: Náutico 1 x 0 Ponte Preta, Saturday, April 4, at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Náutico vs Ponte Preta?: The model pointed to a Náutico win as the most likely result, and got it right.
What were the match statistics for Náutico vs Ponte Preta?: Náutico had more of the ball (69% possession), shots were 18 to 4, and corners were 17 to 3.
How did Náutico and Ponte Preta arrive for this match?: Náutico arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points). Ponte Preta arrived with 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 4 matches (4 of 12 points).

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.