Fortaleza 1 x 1 Náutico: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 31

Fortaleza

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1 × 1

Náutico

Away

Friday, October 2 · 09:35 PMEstádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Fortaleza win50.4%

Draw32.4%

Náutico win17.2%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals34.8%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Fortaleza and Náutico drew 1 to 1, Friday, October 2, at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo and in the Série B 2026.

Fortaleza had more of the ball (51% possession), shots were 12 to 7, and corners were 7 to 4.

Fortaleza arrived with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches (11 of 15 points). Náutico arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points).

The only recorded previous meeting ended Náutico 0 x 1 Fortaleza.

Match statistics

51%Possession49%

4On target3

12Shots7

7Corners4

15Fouls22

1Offsides1

2Saves3

1Yellow cards3

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Fortaleza win as the most likely result, and the result was different. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

FortalezaDWDWW

Fortaleza's last matches
09/27	Fortaleza 2x2 Athletic Club
09/20	Londrina 1x2 Fortaleza
09/13	Fortaleza 1x1 Ceará
09/09	Fortaleza 1x0 Avaí
09/05	Goiás 0x1 Fortaleza

NáuticoWLDLW

Náutico's last matches
09/26	Náutico 3x1 Sport Recife
09/21	Cuiabá 3x0 Náutico
09/15	Náutico 3x3 Operário PR
09/09	América Mineiro 2x1 Náutico
09/03	Náutico 1x0 Botafogo SP

Head-to-head

Last matches between Fortaleza and Náutico
06/09/2026	Náutico 0x1 Fortaleza

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 31

Frequently asked questions about Fortaleza vs Náutico

What was the score of Fortaleza vs Náutico?: Fortaleza 1 x 1 Náutico, Friday, October 2, at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Náutico?: The model pointed to a Fortaleza win as the most likely result, and the result was different.
What were the match statistics for Fortaleza vs Náutico?: Fortaleza had more of the ball (51% possession), shots were 12 to 7, and corners were 7 to 4.
How did Fortaleza and Náutico arrive for this match?: Fortaleza arrived with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches (11 of 15 points). Náutico arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points).
Who had the upper hand in previous meetings?: The only recorded previous meeting ended Náutico 0 x 1 Fortaleza.

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.