Athletic Club 1 x 2 Sport Recife: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 31

Athletic Club

Home

1 × 2

Sport Recife

Away

Thursday, October 1 · 08:30 PMEstádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais)

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Athletic Club win40.2%

Draw36.5%

Sport Recife win23.3%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals44.2%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Sport Recife beat Athletic Club 2 to 1 away from home, Thursday, October 1, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais) and in the Série B 2026.

Athletic Club had more of the ball (57% possession), shots were 20 to 11, and corners were 8 to 6.

Athletic Club arrived with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (8 of 15 points). Sport Recife arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points).

In the 2 recorded previous meetings, there were 1 win for Athletic Club, 0 for Sport Recife and 1 draw.

Match statistics

57%Possession43%

8On target5

20Shots11

8Corners6

12Fouls15

1Offsides0

3Saves7

2Yellow cards2

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Athletic Club win as the most likely result, and the result was different. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

Athletic ClubDDWLW

Athletic Club's last matches
09/27	Fortaleza 2x2 Athletic Club
09/19	Athletic Club 1x1 Botafogo SP
09/13	Juventude 0x2 Athletic Club
09/08	Cuiabá 3x0 Athletic Club
09/04	Athletic Club 5x0 Vila Nova

Sport RecifeLWLWL

Sport Recife's last matches
09/26	Náutico 3x1 Sport Recife
09/19	Sport Recife 2x1 Juventude
09/15	CRB 2x1 Sport Recife
09/10	Sport Recife 2x0 Ponte Preta
09/05	Ceará 2x1 Sport Recife

Head-to-head

Last matches between Athletic Club and Sport Recife
06/10/2026	Sport Recife 1x1 Athletic Club
03/17/2026	Sport Recife 1x3 Athletic Club

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 31

Frequently asked questions about Athletic Club vs Sport Recife

What was the score of Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?: Athletic Club 1 x 2 Sport Recife, Thursday, October 1, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais), in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?: The model pointed to a Athletic Club win as the most likely result, and the result was different.
What were the match statistics for Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?: Athletic Club had more of the ball (57% possession), shots were 20 to 11, and corners were 8 to 6.
How did Athletic Club and Sport Recife arrive for this match?: Athletic Club arrived with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (8 of 15 points). Sport Recife arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points).
Who had the upper hand in previous meetings?: In the 2 recorded previous meetings, there were 1 win for Athletic Club, 0 for Sport Recife and 1 draw.

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.