São Bernardo 3 x 4 Ceará: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 20

São Bernardo

Home

3 × 4

Ceará

Away

Sunday, July 26 · 04:00 PMEstádio Humberto de Alencar Castelo Branco

What the model calculated before the match

Result

São Bernardo win63.4%

Draw16.9%

Ceará win19.7%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals49.4%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Ceará beat São Bernardo 4 to 3 away from home, Sunday, July 26, at Estádio Humberto de Alencar Castelo Branco and in the Série B 2026.

São Bernardo had more of the ball (54% possession), shots were 11 to 14, and corners were 10 to 3.

São Bernardo arrived with 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (2 of 15 points). Ceará arrived with 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (2 of 15 points).

In the 2 recorded previous meetings, there were 0 wins for São Bernardo, 0 for Ceará and 2 draws.

Match statistics

54%Possession46%

5On target7

11Shots14

10Corners3

13Fouls20

1Offsides1

3Saves2

1Yellow cards2

1Red cards0

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a São Bernardo win as the most likely result, and the result was different. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

São BernardoLDDLL

São Bernardo's last matches
07/23	Athletic Club 2x1 São Bernardo
07/17	São Bernardo 1x1 Avaí
07/12	São Bernardo 2x2 Cuiabá
07/06	Vila Nova 2x1 São Bernardo
06/27	Criciúma 1x0 São Bernardo

CearáLDDLL

Ceará's last matches
07/22	Ceará 0x1 CRB
07/17	América Mineiro 1x1 Ceará
07/13	Ceará 0x0 Athletic Club
07/04	Goiás 2x0 Ceará
06/28	Juventude 2x0 Ceará

Head-to-head

Last matches between São Bernardo and Ceará
03/21/2026	Ceará 1x1 São Bernardo
03/17/2026	São Bernardo 0x0 Ceará

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 20

Frequently asked questions about São Bernardo vs Ceará

What was the score of São Bernardo vs Ceará?: São Bernardo 3 x 4 Ceará, Sunday, July 26, at Estádio Humberto de Alencar Castelo Branco, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for São Bernardo vs Ceará?: The model pointed to a São Bernardo win as the most likely result, and the result was different.
What were the match statistics for São Bernardo vs Ceará?: São Bernardo had more of the ball (54% possession), shots were 11 to 14, and corners were 10 to 3.
How did São Bernardo and Ceará arrive for this match?: São Bernardo arrived with 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (2 of 15 points). Ceará arrived with 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (2 of 15 points).
Who had the upper hand in previous meetings?: In the 2 recorded previous meetings, there were 0 wins for São Bernardo, 0 for Ceará and 2 draws.

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.