Fortaleza 1 x 0 Novorizontino: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 18

Fortaleza

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1 × 0

Novorizontino

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Friday, July 17 · 09:00 PMEstádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Fortaleza win28.5%

Draw44.8%

Novorizontino win26.7%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals41.3%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Fortaleza beat Novorizontino 1 to 0 at home, Friday, July 17, at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo and in the Série B 2026.

Novorizontino had more of the ball (62% possession), shots were 12 to 14, and corners were 10 to 6.

Fortaleza arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points). Novorizontino arrived with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (10 of 15 points).

Match statistics

38%Possession62%

4On target4

12Shots14

10Corners6

17Fouls6

2Offsides0

3Saves3

4Yellow cards1

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a draw as the most likely result, and the result was different. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

FortalezaLWWDL

Fortaleza's last matches
07/12	Atlético GO 1x0 Fortaleza
07/02	Fortaleza 2x0 Ponte Preta
06/28	Fortaleza 2x1 Sport Recife
06/21	CRB 1x1 Fortaleza
06/16	Fortaleza 0x3 América Mineiro

NovorizontinoLWWWD

Novorizontino's last matches
07/12	Operário PR 2x1 Novorizontino
07/04	Novorizontino 3x0 Atlético GO
06/26	Novorizontino 2x1 Vila Nova
06/22	Ponte Preta 0x2 Novorizontino
06/14	Novorizontino 2x2 Náutico

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 18

Frequently asked questions about Fortaleza vs Novorizontino

What was the score of Fortaleza vs Novorizontino?: Fortaleza 1 x 0 Novorizontino, Friday, July 17, at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Novorizontino?: The model pointed to a draw as the most likely result, and the result was different.
What were the match statistics for Fortaleza vs Novorizontino?: Novorizontino had more of the ball (62% possession), shots were 12 to 14, and corners were 10 to 6.
How did Fortaleza and Novorizontino arrive for this match?: Fortaleza arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points). Novorizontino arrived with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (10 of 15 points).

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.