Ceará 2 x 1 Fortaleza: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 9

Ceará

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2 × 1

Fortaleza

Away

Sunday, May 17 · 06:30 PMEstádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Ceará win41.9%

Draw23.8%

Fortaleza win34.3%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals51.1%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Ceará beat Fortaleza 2 to 1 at home, Sunday, May 17, at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo and in the Série B 2026.

Possession was split (50% to 50%), shots were 7 to 15, and corners were 3 to 2.

Ceará arrived with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (4 of 15 points). Fortaleza arrived with 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 matches (9 of 15 points).

Match statistics

50%Possession50%

5On target5

7Shots15

3Corners2

20Fouls21

1Offsides2

4Saves3

3Yellow cards4

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Ceará win as the most likely result, and got it right. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

CearáWLLDL

Ceará's last matches
05/13	Ceará 2x1 Atlético Mineiro
05/09	Ceará 0x1 Atlético GO
05/03	Sport Recife 2x0 Ceará
04/26	Ceará 3x3 Vila Nova
04/23	Atlético Mineiro 2x1 Ceará

FortalezaDDWDW

Fortaleza's last matches
05/14	CRB 0x0 Fortaleza
05/10	Avaí 0x0 Fortaleza
05/02	Fortaleza 4x1 Goiás
04/26	Operário PR 0x0 Fortaleza
04/22	Fortaleza 2x1 CRB

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 9

Frequently asked questions about Ceará vs Fortaleza

What was the score of Ceará vs Fortaleza?: Ceará 2 x 1 Fortaleza, Sunday, May 17, at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Ceará vs Fortaleza?: The model pointed to a Ceará win as the most likely result, and got it right.
What were the match statistics for Ceará vs Fortaleza?: Possession was split (50% to 50%), shots were 7 to 15, and corners were 3 to 2.
How did Ceará and Fortaleza arrive for this match?: Ceará arrived with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (4 of 15 points). Fortaleza arrived with 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 matches (9 of 15 points).

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.