Athletic Club 5 x 0 Vila Nova: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 26

Athletic Club

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5 × 0

Vila Nova

Away

Friday, September 4 · 08:30 PMEstádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais)

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Athletic Club win29.2%

Draw43.7%

Vila Nova win27.1%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals47.7%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Athletic Club beat Vila Nova 5 to 0 at home, Friday, September 4, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais) and in the Série B 2026.

Vila Nova had more of the ball (58% possession), shots were 13 to 8, and corners were 2 to 2.

Athletic Club arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points). Vila Nova arrived with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (10 of 15 points).

The only recorded previous meeting ended Vila Nova 1 x 1 Athletic Club.

Match statistics

42%Possession58%

11On target4

13Shots8

2Corners2

17Fouls11

1Offsides0

3Saves6

3Yellow cards2

0Red cards1

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a draw as the most likely result, and the result was different. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

Athletic ClubLLLWW

Athletic Club's last matches
08/28	Náutico 2x1 Athletic Club
08/24	Athletic Club 1x4 Novorizontino
08/20	Athletic Club 0x2 CRB
08/16	América Mineiro 1x3 Athletic Club
08/09	Athletic Club 2x0 Criciúma

Vila NovaWDWWL

Vila Nova's last matches
08/30	Vila Nova 2x0 Ceará
08/23	Operário PR 0x0 Vila Nova
08/19	Vila Nova 6x0 Ponte Preta
08/15	Atlético GO 0x2 Vila Nova
08/08	Vila Nova 0x1 Sport Recife

Head-to-head

Last matches between Athletic Club and Vila Nova
05/04/2026	Vila Nova 1x1 Athletic Club

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 26

Frequently asked questions about Athletic Club vs Vila Nova

What was the score of Athletic Club vs Vila Nova?: Athletic Club 5 x 0 Vila Nova, Friday, September 4, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais), in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Athletic Club vs Vila Nova?: The model pointed to a draw as the most likely result, and the result was different.
What were the match statistics for Athletic Club vs Vila Nova?: Vila Nova had more of the ball (58% possession), shots were 13 to 8, and corners were 2 to 2.
How did Athletic Club and Vila Nova arrive for this match?: Athletic Club arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points). Vila Nova arrived with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (10 of 15 points).
Who had the upper hand in previous meetings?: The only recorded previous meeting ended Vila Nova 1 x 1 Athletic Club.

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.