Athletic Club 0 x 1 Náutico: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 6

Athletic Club

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0 × 1

Náutico

Away

Monday, April 27 · 07:00 PMEstádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais)

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Athletic Club win38.4%

Draw22.3%

Náutico win39.3%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals56.1%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Náutico beat Athletic Club 1 to 0 away from home, Monday, April 27, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais) and in the Série B 2026.

Athletic Club had more of the ball (54% possession), shots were 8 to 8, and corners were 8 to 4.

Athletic Club arrived with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (5 of 15 points). Náutico arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points).

Match statistics

54%Possession46%

5On target1

8Shots8

8Corners4

14Fouls15

3Offsides3

0Saves5

3Yellow cards4

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Náutico win as the most likely result, and got it right. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

Athletic ClubLLWDD

Athletic Club's last matches
04/22	Athletic Club 1x2 Internacional
04/19	Novorizontino 2x1 Athletic Club
04/12	CRB 2x3 Athletic Club
04/05	Athletic Club 1x1 América Mineiro
04/01	Criciúma 1x1 Athletic Club

NáuticoLLWWL

Náutico's last matches
04/18	Náutico 0x3 São Bernardo
04/11	Ceará 1x0 Náutico
04/04	Náutico 1x0 Ponte Preta
04/01	Atlético GO 1x2 Náutico
03/22	Náutico 0x1 Criciúma

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 6

Frequently asked questions about Athletic Club vs Náutico

What was the score of Athletic Club vs Náutico?: Athletic Club 0 x 1 Náutico, Monday, April 27, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais), in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Athletic Club vs Náutico?: The model pointed to a Náutico win as the most likely result, and got it right.
What were the match statistics for Athletic Club vs Náutico?: Athletic Club had more of the ball (54% possession), shots were 8 to 8, and corners were 8 to 4.
How did Athletic Club and Náutico arrive for this match?: Athletic Club arrived with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (5 of 15 points). Náutico arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points).

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.