Athletic Club 1 x 0 Fortaleza: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 11

Athletic Club

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1 × 0

Fortaleza

Away

Saturday, May 30 · 06:00 PMEstádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais)

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Athletic Club win46.2%

Draw23.2%

Fortaleza win30.6%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals51.6%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Athletic Club beat Fortaleza 1 to 0 at home, Saturday, May 30, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais) and in the Série B 2026.

Fortaleza had more of the ball (54% possession), shots were 13 to 14, and corners were 8 to 7.

Athletic Club arrived with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points). Fortaleza arrived with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (8 of 15 points).

Match statistics

46%Possession54%

2On target4

13Shots14

8Corners7

17Fouls15

1Offsides0

4Saves1

0Yellow cards1

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Athletic Club win as the most likely result, and got it right. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

Athletic ClubWDLDD

Athletic Club's last matches
05/25	Botafogo SP 1x2 Athletic Club
05/17	Athletic Club 1x1 Juventude
05/12	Internacional 3x2 Athletic Club
05/09	Athletic Club 0x0 Cuiabá
05/04	Vila Nova 1x1 Athletic Club

FortalezaWLDDW

Fortaleza's last matches
05/23	Fortaleza 3x0 Londrina
05/17	Ceará 2x1 Fortaleza
05/14	CRB 0x0 Fortaleza
05/10	Avaí 0x0 Fortaleza
05/02	Fortaleza 4x1 Goiás

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 11

Frequently asked questions about Athletic Club vs Fortaleza

What was the score of Athletic Club vs Fortaleza?: Athletic Club 1 x 0 Fortaleza, Saturday, May 30, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais), in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Athletic Club vs Fortaleza?: The model pointed to a Athletic Club win as the most likely result, and got it right.
What were the match statistics for Athletic Club vs Fortaleza?: Fortaleza had more of the ball (54% possession), shots were 13 to 14, and corners were 8 to 7.
How did Athletic Club and Fortaleza arrive for this match?: Athletic Club arrived with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points). Fortaleza arrived with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (8 of 15 points).

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.