América Mineiro 2 x 1 Náutico: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 27

América Mineiro

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2 × 1

Náutico

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Wednesday, September 9 · 08:30 PMCentro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães

What the model calculated before the match

Result

América Mineiro win20.5%

Draw37.3%

Náutico win42.2%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals41.6%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

América Mineiro beat Náutico 2 to 1 at home, Wednesday, September 9, at Centro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães and in the Série B 2026.

Náutico had more of the ball (63% possession), shots were 14 to 10, and corners were 5 to 10.

América Mineiro arrived with 1 win and 4 losses in the last 5 matches (3 of 15 points). Náutico arrived with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches (11 of 15 points).

The only recorded previous meeting ended Náutico 4 x 0 América Mineiro.

Match statistics

37%Possession63%

6On target3

14Shots10

5Corners10

12Fouls14

2Saves4

1Yellow cards2

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Náutico win as the most likely result, and the result was different. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

América MineiroLWLLL

América Mineiro's last matches
09/04	CRB 3x1 América Mineiro
08/30	América Mineiro 2x0 Ponte Preta
08/24	Sport Recife 3x0 América Mineiro
08/20	Novorizontino 3x0 América Mineiro
08/16	América Mineiro 1x3 Athletic Club

NáuticoWWDWD

Náutico's last matches
09/03	Náutico 1x0 Botafogo SP
08/28	Náutico 2x1 Athletic Club
08/23	São Bernardo 1x1 Náutico
08/18	Náutico 1x0 Ceará
08/14	Ponte Preta 1x1 Náutico

Head-to-head

Last matches between América Mineiro and Náutico
05/10/2026	Náutico 4x0 América Mineiro

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 27

Frequently asked questions about América Mineiro vs Náutico

What was the score of América Mineiro vs Náutico?: América Mineiro 2 x 1 Náutico, Wednesday, September 9, at Centro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for América Mineiro vs Náutico?: The model pointed to a Náutico win as the most likely result, and the result was different.
What were the match statistics for América Mineiro vs Náutico?: Náutico had more of the ball (63% possession), shots were 14 to 10, and corners were 5 to 10.
How did América Mineiro and Náutico arrive for this match?: América Mineiro arrived with 1 win and 4 losses in the last 5 matches (3 of 15 points). Náutico arrived with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches (11 of 15 points).
Who had the upper hand in previous meetings?: The only recorded previous meeting ended Náutico 4 x 0 América Mineiro.

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.