Vila Nova 2 x 1 Fortaleza: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 19

Vila Nova

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2 × 1

Fortaleza

Away

Tuesday, July 21 · 09:35 PMEstádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Vila Nova win34.2%

Draw24.9%

Fortaleza win40.9%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals43.5%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Vila Nova beat Fortaleza 2 to 1 at home, Tuesday, July 21, at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga and in the Série B 2026.

Vila Nova had more of the ball (52% possession), shots were 8 to 9, and corners were 4 to 4.

Vila Nova arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points). Fortaleza arrived with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (10 of 15 points).

Match statistics

52%Possession48%

4On target3

8Shots9

4Corners4

18Fouls12

2Offsides3

2Saves3

1Yellow cards3

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Fortaleza win as the most likely result, and the result was different. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

Vila NovaLLWLW

Vila Nova's last matches
07/18	Criciúma 2x0 Vila Nova
07/10	Juventude 1x0 Vila Nova
07/06	Vila Nova 2x1 São Bernardo
06/26	Novorizontino 2x1 Vila Nova
06/20	Vila Nova 4x3 Náutico

FortalezaWLWWD

Fortaleza's last matches
07/17	Fortaleza 1x0 Novorizontino
07/12	Atlético GO 1x0 Fortaleza
07/02	Fortaleza 2x0 Ponte Preta
06/28	Fortaleza 2x1 Sport Recife
06/21	CRB 1x1 Fortaleza

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 19

Frequently asked questions about Vila Nova vs Fortaleza

What was the score of Vila Nova vs Fortaleza?: Vila Nova 2 x 1 Fortaleza, Tuesday, July 21, at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Fortaleza?: The model pointed to a Fortaleza win as the most likely result, and the result was different.
What were the match statistics for Vila Nova vs Fortaleza?: Vila Nova had more of the ball (52% possession), shots were 8 to 9, and corners were 4 to 4.
How did Vila Nova and Fortaleza arrive for this match?: Vila Nova arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points). Fortaleza arrived with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (10 of 15 points).

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.