Athletic Club 2 x 1 São Bernardo: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 19

Athletic Club

Home

2 × 1

São Bernardo

Away

Thursday, July 23 · 07:30 PMEstádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais)

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Athletic Club win41.4%

Draw30.3%

São Bernardo win28.3%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals26.3%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Athletic Club beat São Bernardo 2 to 1 at home, Thursday, July 23, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais) and in the Série B 2026.

São Bernardo had more of the ball (61% possession), shots were 7 to 16, and corners were 2 to 7.

Athletic Club arrived with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (5 of 15 points). São Bernardo arrived with 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (2 of 15 points).

Match statistics

39%Possession61%

5On target11

7Shots16

2Corners7

17Fouls7

5Offsides5

10Saves3

1Yellow cards3

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Athletic Club win as the most likely result, and got it right. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

Athletic ClubDDLWL

Athletic Club's last matches
07/18	Atlético GO 0x0 Athletic Club
07/13	Ceará 0x0 Athletic Club
07/07	Athletic Club 0x1 Operário PR
06/28	Athletic Club 1x0 Avaí
06/20	Londrina 2x0 Athletic Club

São BernardoDDLLL

São Bernardo's last matches
07/17	São Bernardo 1x1 Avaí
07/12	São Bernardo 2x2 Cuiabá
07/06	Vila Nova 2x1 São Bernardo
06/27	Criciúma 1x0 São Bernardo
06/21	São Bernardo 0x1 Juventude

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 19

Frequently asked questions about Athletic Club vs São Bernardo

What was the score of Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?: Athletic Club 2 x 1 São Bernardo, Thursday, July 23, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais), in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?: The model pointed to a Athletic Club win as the most likely result, and got it right.
What were the match statistics for Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?: São Bernardo had more of the ball (61% possession), shots were 7 to 16, and corners were 2 to 7.
How did Athletic Club and São Bernardo arrive for this match?: Athletic Club arrived with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (5 of 15 points). São Bernardo arrived with 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (2 of 15 points).

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.