São Bernardo 1 x 1 Náutico: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 24

São Bernardo

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1 × 1

Náutico

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Sunday, August 23 · 04:00 PMEstádio Humberto de Alencar Castelo Branco

What the model calculated before the match

Result

São Bernardo win39.6%

Draw40.2%

Náutico win20.2%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals48.8%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

São Bernardo and Náutico drew 1 to 1, Sunday, August 23, at Estádio Humberto de Alencar Castelo Branco and in the Série B 2026.

Náutico had more of the ball (53% possession), shots were 11 to 9, and corners were 4 to 3.

São Bernardo arrived with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (4 of 15 points). Náutico arrived with 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 matches (9 of 15 points).

The only recorded previous meeting ended Náutico 0 x 3 São Bernardo.

Match statistics

47%Possession53%

3On target2

11Shots9

4Corners3

13Fouls16

2Offsides3

1Saves2

0Yellow cards1

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a draw as the most likely result, and got it right. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

São BernardoDLWLL

São Bernardo's last matches
08/19	Fortaleza 1x1 São Bernardo
08/14	São Bernardo 0x1 Botafogo SP
08/07	Operário PR 1x3 São Bernardo
07/26	São Bernardo 3x4 Ceará
07/23	Athletic Club 2x1 São Bernardo

NáuticoWDDDW

Náutico's last matches
08/18	Náutico 1x0 Ceará
08/14	Ponte Preta 1x1 Náutico
08/09	Náutico 1x1 Atlético GO
07/26	Criciúma 0x0 Náutico
07/22	Náutico 2x1 Londrina

Head-to-head

Last matches between São Bernardo and Náutico
04/18/2026	Náutico 0x3 São Bernardo

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 24

Frequently asked questions about São Bernardo vs Náutico

What was the score of São Bernardo vs Náutico?: São Bernardo 1 x 1 Náutico, Sunday, August 23, at Estádio Humberto de Alencar Castelo Branco, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for São Bernardo vs Náutico?: The model pointed to a draw as the most likely result, and got it right.
What were the match statistics for São Bernardo vs Náutico?: Náutico had more of the ball (53% possession), shots were 11 to 9, and corners were 4 to 3.
How did São Bernardo and Náutico arrive for this match?: São Bernardo arrived with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (4 of 15 points). Náutico arrived with 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 matches (9 of 15 points).
Who had the upper hand in previous meetings?: The only recorded previous meeting ended Náutico 0 x 3 São Bernardo.

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.