Athletic Club 1 x 4 Novorizontino: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 24

Athletic Club

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1 × 4

Novorizontino

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Monday, August 24 · 07:30 PMEstádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais)

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Athletic Club win26.7%

Draw43.6%

Novorizontino win29.7%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals39.8%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Novorizontino beat Athletic Club 4 to 1 away from home, Monday, August 24, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais) and in the Série B 2026.

Novorizontino had more of the ball (55% possession), shots were 9 to 15, and corners were 9 to 5.

Athletic Club arrived with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (10 of 15 points). Novorizontino arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points).

The only recorded previous meeting ended Novorizontino 2 x 1 Athletic Club.

Match statistics

45%Possession55%

1On target8

9Shots15

9Corners5

12Fouls7

3Offsides2

5Saves0

3Yellow cards0

1Red cards0

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a draw as the most likely result, and the result was different. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

Athletic ClubLWWDW

Athletic Club's last matches
08/20	Athletic Club 0x2 CRB
08/16	América Mineiro 1x3 Athletic Club
08/09	Athletic Club 2x0 Criciúma
07/28	Ponte Preta 1x1 Athletic Club
07/23	Athletic Club 2x1 São Bernardo

NovorizontinoWDLWL

Novorizontino's last matches
08/20	Novorizontino 3x0 América Mineiro
08/16	CRB 0x0 Novorizontino
08/09	Novorizontino 0x1 Juventude
07/26	Londrina 1x4 Novorizontino
07/21	Novorizontino 0x1 Criciúma

Head-to-head

Last matches between Athletic Club and Novorizontino
04/19/2026	Novorizontino 2x1 Athletic Club

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 24

Frequently asked questions about Athletic Club vs Novorizontino

What was the score of Athletic Club vs Novorizontino?: Athletic Club 1 x 4 Novorizontino, Monday, August 24, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais), in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Athletic Club vs Novorizontino?: The model pointed to a draw as the most likely result, and the result was different.
What were the match statistics for Athletic Club vs Novorizontino?: Novorizontino had more of the ball (55% possession), shots were 9 to 15, and corners were 9 to 5.
How did Athletic Club and Novorizontino arrive for this match?: Athletic Club arrived with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (10 of 15 points). Novorizontino arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points).
Who had the upper hand in previous meetings?: The only recorded previous meeting ended Novorizontino 2 x 1 Athletic Club.

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.