Náutico 3 x 1 Sport Recife: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 30

Náutico

Home

3 × 1

Sport Recife

Away

Saturday, September 26 · 04:30 PMEstádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Náutico win36.1%

Draw32.7%

Sport Recife win31.3%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals45.2%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Náutico beat Sport Recife 3 to 1 at home, Saturday, September 26, at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho and in the Série B 2026.

Sport Recife had more of the ball (59% possession), shots were 10 to 14, and corners were 11 to 9.

Náutico arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points). Sport Recife arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points).

The only recorded previous meeting ended Sport Recife 2 x 0 Náutico.

Match statistics

41%Possession59%

4On target4

10Shots14

11Corners9

16Fouls7

2Offsides0

3Saves2

1Yellow cards1

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Náutico win as the most likely result, and got it right. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

NáuticoLDLWW

Náutico's last matches
09/21	Cuiabá 3x0 Náutico
09/15	Náutico 3x3 Operário PR
09/09	América Mineiro 2x1 Náutico
09/03	Náutico 1x0 Botafogo SP
08/28	Náutico 2x1 Athletic Club

Sport RecifeWLWLL

Sport Recife's last matches
09/19	Sport Recife 2x1 Juventude
09/15	CRB 2x1 Sport Recife
09/10	Sport Recife 2x0 Ponte Preta
09/05	Ceará 2x1 Sport Recife
08/28	Novorizontino 2x1 Sport Recife

Head-to-head

Last matches between Náutico and Sport Recife
05/30/2026	Sport Recife 2x0 Náutico

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

Create free account I already have an account

Other matches in round 30

Frequently asked questions about Náutico vs Sport Recife

What was the score of Náutico vs Sport Recife?: Náutico 3 x 1 Sport Recife, Saturday, September 26, at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Náutico vs Sport Recife?: The model pointed to a Náutico win as the most likely result, and got it right.
What were the match statistics for Náutico vs Sport Recife?: Sport Recife had more of the ball (59% possession), shots were 10 to 14, and corners were 11 to 9.
How did Náutico and Sport Recife arrive for this match?: Náutico arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points). Sport Recife arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points).
Who had the upper hand in previous meetings?: The only recorded previous meeting ended Sport Recife 2 x 0 Náutico.

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.