Fortaleza 2 x 1 Sport Recife: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 15

Fortaleza

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2 × 1

Sport Recife

Away

Sunday, June 28 · 06:30 PMEstádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Fortaleza win43.5%

Draw26.8%

Sport Recife win29.7%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals16.8%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Fortaleza beat Sport Recife 2 to 1 at home, Sunday, June 28, at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo and in the Série B 2026.

Sport Recife had more of the ball (60% possession), shots were 9 to 11, and corners were 2 to 6.

Fortaleza arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points). Sport Recife arrived with 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 matches (9 of 15 points).

Match statistics

40%Possession60%

7On target5

9Shots11

2Corners6

20Fouls9

1Offsides1

4Saves5

3Yellow cards2

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Fortaleza win as the most likely result, and got it right. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

FortalezaDLWLW

Fortaleza's last matches
06/21	CRB 1x1 Fortaleza
06/16	Fortaleza 0x3 América Mineiro
06/09	Náutico 0x1 Fortaleza
05/30	Athletic Club 1x0 Fortaleza
05/23	Fortaleza 3x0 Londrina

Sport RecifeDDDWW

Sport Recife's last matches
06/18	Sport Recife 1x1 Atlético GO
06/14	São Bernardo 0x0 Sport Recife
06/10	Sport Recife 1x1 Athletic Club
05/30	Sport Recife 2x0 Náutico
05/23	Juventude 0x1 Sport Recife

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 15

Frequently asked questions about Fortaleza vs Sport Recife

What was the score of Fortaleza vs Sport Recife?: Fortaleza 2 x 1 Sport Recife, Sunday, June 28, at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Sport Recife?: The model pointed to a Fortaleza win as the most likely result, and got it right.
What were the match statistics for Fortaleza vs Sport Recife?: Sport Recife had more of the ball (60% possession), shots were 9 to 11, and corners were 2 to 6.
How did Fortaleza and Sport Recife arrive for this match?: Fortaleza arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points). Sport Recife arrived with 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 matches (9 of 15 points).

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.