Avaí 1 x 1 Vila Nova: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 28

Avaí

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1 × 1

Vila Nova

Away

Monday, September 14 · 09:30 PMEstádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Avaí win28.9%

Draw34.0%

Vila Nova win37.0%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals43.9%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Avaí and Vila Nova drew 1 to 1, Monday, September 14, at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva and in the Série B 2026.

Vila Nova had more of the ball (55% possession), shots were 7 to 8, and corners were 4 to 4.

Avaí arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points). Vila Nova arrived with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (10 of 15 points).

In the 2 recorded previous meetings, there were 0 wins for Avaí, 1 for Vila Nova and 1 draw.

Match statistics

45%Possession55%

2On target2

7Shots8

4Corners4

9Fouls14

4Offsides0

1Saves1

1Yellow cards1

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Vila Nova win as the most likely result, and the result was different. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

AvaíLLLWW

Avaí's last matches
09/09	Fortaleza 1x0 Avaí
09/05	Novorizontino 3x1 Avaí
08/30	Avaí 0x1 Atlético GO
08/23	Ponte Preta 0x2 Avaí
08/19	Avaí 2x1 Sport Recife

Vila NovaWLWDW

Vila Nova's last matches
09/10	Vila Nova 2x0 Goiás
09/04	Athletic Club 5x0 Vila Nova
08/30	Vila Nova 2x0 Ceará
08/23	Operário PR 0x0 Vila Nova
08/19	Vila Nova 6x0 Ponte Preta

Head-to-head

Last matches between Avaí and Vila Nova
05/17/2026	Vila Nova 2x0 Avaí
07/19/2025	Avaí 1x1 Vila Nova

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 28

Frequently asked questions about Avaí vs Vila Nova

What was the score of Avaí vs Vila Nova?: Avaí 1 x 1 Vila Nova, Monday, September 14, at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Avaí vs Vila Nova?: The model pointed to a Vila Nova win as the most likely result, and the result was different.
What were the match statistics for Avaí vs Vila Nova?: Vila Nova had more of the ball (55% possession), shots were 7 to 8, and corners were 4 to 4.
How did Avaí and Vila Nova arrive for this match?: Avaí arrived with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches (6 of 15 points). Vila Nova arrived with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (10 of 15 points).
Who had the upper hand in previous meetings?: In the 2 recorded previous meetings, there were 0 wins for Avaí, 1 for Vila Nova and 1 draw.

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.