Vila Nova 4 x 3 Náutico: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 14

Vila Nova

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4 × 3

Náutico

Away

Saturday, June 20 · 07:00 PMEstádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Vila Nova win56.5%

Draw21.9%

Náutico win21.7%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals37.4%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Vila Nova beat Náutico 4 to 3 at home, Saturday, June 20, at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga and in the Série B 2026.

Náutico had more of the ball (68% possession), shots were 13 to 20, and corners were 2 to 10.

Vila Nova arrived with 4 wins and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (12 of 15 points). Náutico arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points).

Match statistics

32%Possession68%

6On target7

13Shots20

2Corners10

14Fouls12

2Offsides2

4Saves2

2Yellow cards2

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Vila Nova win as the most likely result, and got it right. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

Vila NovaLWWWW

Vila Nova's last matches
06/14	Cuiabá 1x0 Vila Nova
06/08	Vila Nova 1x0 Botafogo SP
05/31	Londrina 0x1 Vila Nova
05/24	América Mineiro 1x2 Vila Nova
05/17	Vila Nova 2x0 Avaí

NáuticoDLLWW

Náutico's last matches
06/14	Novorizontino 2x2 Náutico
06/09	Náutico 0x1 Fortaleza
05/30	Sport Recife 2x0 Náutico
05/22	Náutico 1x0 Cuiabá
05/16	Operário PR 2x6 Náutico

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 14

Frequently asked questions about Vila Nova vs Náutico

What was the score of Vila Nova vs Náutico?: Vila Nova 4 x 3 Náutico, Saturday, June 20, at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga, in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Náutico?: The model pointed to a Vila Nova win as the most likely result, and got it right.
What were the match statistics for Vila Nova vs Náutico?: Náutico had more of the ball (68% possession), shots were 13 to 20, and corners were 2 to 10.
How did Vila Nova and Náutico arrive for this match?: Vila Nova arrived with 4 wins and 1 loss in the last 5 matches (12 of 15 points). Náutico arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points).

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.