São Paulo 1 x 2 Santos: stats and analysis

Série A 2026, round 21

São Paulo

Home

1 × 2

Santos

Away

Friday, October 2 · 08:00 PMEstádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

What the model calculated before the match

Result

São Paulo win39.5%

Draw34.3%

Santos win26.1%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals31.7%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Santos beat São Paulo 2 to 1 away from home, Friday, October 2, at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo and in the Série A 2026.

São Paulo had more of the ball (60% possession), shots were 14 to 7, and corners were 14 to 1.

São Paulo arrived with 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (9 of 15 points). Santos arrived with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches (13 of 15 points).

In the 2 recorded previous meetings, there were 0 wins for São Paulo, 1 for Santos and 1 draw.

Match statistics

60%Possession40%

8On target4

14Shots7

14Corners1

13Fouls10

2Saves7

1Yellow cards3

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a São Paulo win as the most likely result, and the result was different. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

São PauloWLWWL

São Paulo's last matches
09/19	São Paulo 1x0 Internacional
09/12	Palmeiras 2x0 São Paulo
09/05	São Paulo 2x0 Atlético Mineiro
08/29	São Paulo 2x1 Bragantino
08/23	Chapecoense 1x0 São Paulo

SantosWWWDW

Santos's last matches
09/19	Remo 1x2 Santos
09/12	Santos 2x1 Cruzeiro
09/06	Internacional 2x3 Santos
09/02	Santos 0x0 Palmeiras
08/30	Corinthians 0x1 Santos

Head-to-head

Last matches between São Paulo and Santos
02/04/2026	Santos 1x1 São Paulo
09/21/2025	Santos 1x0 São Paulo

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Other matches in round 21

Atlético Mineiro 1 x 0 Bragantino10/03

Frequently asked questions about São Paulo vs Santos

What was the score of São Paulo vs Santos?: São Paulo 1 x 2 Santos, Friday, October 2, at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, in the Série A 2026.
What did the model predict for São Paulo vs Santos?: The model pointed to a São Paulo win as the most likely result, and the result was different.
What were the match statistics for São Paulo vs Santos?: São Paulo had more of the ball (60% possession), shots were 14 to 7, and corners were 14 to 1.
How did São Paulo and Santos arrive for this match?: São Paulo arrived with 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (9 of 15 points). Santos arrived with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches (13 of 15 points).
Who had the upper hand in previous meetings?: In the 2 recorded previous meetings, there were 0 wins for São Paulo, 1 for Santos and 1 draw.

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.