Série B 2026 probabilities
After 14 rounds
We simulate the 40 remaining matches 10,000 times and count how often each team finished as champion, in the top zone and in the relegation zone. Each scoreline is drawn from the goals expected by the Dixon-Coles model.
| Team | P | Pts | Title | Promotion | Relegation | Final points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vila Nova | 14 | 28 | 47% | 90% | 0% | 33 |
| 2São Bernardo | 14 | 25 | 19% | 71% | 0% | 31 |
| 3Sport Recife | 14 | 25 | 11% | 62% | 0% | 31 |
| 4Novorizontino | 14 | 24 | 15% | 71% | 0% | 31 |
| 5Juventude | 14 | 22 | 4% | 36% | 0% | 29 |
| 6Operário PR | 14 | 22 | 1% | 21% | 0% | 28 |
| 7Fortaleza | 14 | 22 | 2% | 28% | 0% | 28 |
| 8Criciúma | 13 | 21 | 1% | 11% | 0% | 27 |
| 9Náutico | 14 | 20 | 0% | 5% | 1% | 25 |
| 10Cuiabá | 14 | 19 | 0% | 2% | 3% | 25 |
| 11Athletic Club | 14 | 19 | 0% | 2% | 5% | 24 |
| 12Goiás | 14 | 18 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 24 |
| 13Atlético GO | 14 | 18 | 0% | 1% | 10% | 23 |
| 14Ceará | 14 | 17 | 0% | 0% | 12% | 23 |
| 15Botafogo SP | 14 | 16 | 0% | 0% | 27% | 21 |
| 16CRB | 14 | 16 | 0% | 0% | 17% | 22 |
| 17Londrina | 14 | 14 | 0% | 0% | 45% | 20 |
| 18Avaí | 14 | 13 | 0% | 0% | 75% | 18 |
| 19Ponte Preta | 14 | 8 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 10 |
| 20América Mineiro | 13 | 6 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 9 |
How to read it
Each percentage is the share of simulations in which it happened. Promotion counts the top 4 places; relegation, the bottom 4. "Final points" is the average points at the end of the season.
The simulation uses two independent Poisson draws from the expected goals, without the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores, which matters little over a full season of points.
Top scorers
Goals in the competition and the projection for the end of the season, keeping the player current rate.
| Player | Goals | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| 1RobsonNovorizontino | 17 | 46.1 |
| 2MikaelCRB | 13 | 35.3 |
| 3PerottiSport Recife | 11 | 29.9 |
| 4André LuisVila Nova | 9 | 24.4 |
| 5Everton MorelliBotafogo SP | 9 | 24.4 |
| 6Gabriel BoschiliaOperário PR | 9 | 24.4 |
| 7HygorBotafogo SP | 9 | 24.4 |
| 8KaduGoiás | 9 | 24.4 |
| 9Bruno SantosLondrina | 8 | 21.7 |
| 10Gustavo CoutinhoAtlético GO | 8 | 21.7 |
The projection assumes the player is available for every match his team has left. It does not account for injury, suspension or transfer.
Best attacks
- 1CRB231.64 per match
- 2Vila Nova221.57 per match
- 3Novorizontino221.57 per match
- 4Náutico211.50 per match
- 5São Bernardo201.43 per match
Best defences
- 1Cuiabá70.50 per match
- 2Juventude80.57 per match
- 3Sport Recife90.64 per match
- 4São Bernardo110.79 per match
- 5Criciúma110.85 per match
Statistical estimate, not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.