Athletic Club 2 x 1 Ponte Preta: stats and analysis

Série B 2026, round 1

Athletic Club

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2 × 1

Ponte Preta

Away

Sunday, March 22 · 06:00 PMEstádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais)

What the model calculated before the match

Result

Athletic Club win69.4%

Draw15.6%

Ponte Preta win15.0%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals44.0%

Both teams to score, corners, cards, handicap and the comparison between the four models are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Probability calculated by statistical models from data available before kick-off. Not a guarantee of a result or betting advice.

Match summary

Athletic Club beat Ponte Preta 2 to 1 at home, Sunday, March 22, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais) and in the Série B 2026.

Ponte Preta had more of the ball (57% possession), shots were 15 to 7, and corners were 3 to 3.

Athletic Club arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points). Ponte Preta arrived with 1 win and 2 losses in the last 3 matches (3 of 9 points).

Match statistics

43%Possession57%

8On target3

15Shots7

3Corners3

21Fouls15

1Offsides0

2Saves6

3Yellow cards3

What the model predicted

Before the match, FUT Análises' ensemble (Dixon-Coles, XGBoost, Elo and Bradley-Terry) pointed to a Athletic Club win as the most likely result, and got it right. How the models work

Probabilities for each outcome, goals (over/under), both teams to score, corners, cards and handicap for this match are in the full analysis, for registered users.

Recent form before the match

Athletic ClubWWDLL

Athletic Club's last matches
03/17	Sport Recife 1x3 Athletic Club
03/11	Athletic Club 2x0 Ypiranga Erechim
03/04	Rio Branco ES 1x1 Athletic Club
11/01	Avaí 2x1 Athletic Club
10/25	Athletic Club 0x2 América Mineiro

Ponte PretaLWL

Ponte Preta's last matches
03/18	Atlético GO 1x0 Ponte Preta
03/10	Ponte Preta 1x0 Guarany de Bagé
02/26	Concórdia Atlético Clube 2x1 Ponte Preta

See the full analysis of this and the next matches

Market-by-market probabilities, predicted vs actual comparison and pre-match analyses for the next round.

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Frequently asked questions about Athletic Club vs Ponte Preta

What was the score of Athletic Club vs Ponte Preta?: Athletic Club 2 x 1 Ponte Preta, Sunday, March 22, at Estádio Joaquim Portugal (São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais), in the Série B 2026.
What did the model predict for Athletic Club vs Ponte Preta?: The model pointed to a Athletic Club win as the most likely result, and got it right.
What were the match statistics for Athletic Club vs Ponte Preta?: Ponte Preta had more of the ball (57% possession), shots were 15 to 7, and corners were 3 to 3.
How did Athletic Club and Ponte Preta arrive for this match?: Athletic Club arrived with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches (7 of 15 points). Ponte Preta arrived with 1 win and 2 losses in the last 3 matches (3 of 9 points).

Statistical and informational content, for ages 18 and up. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees of a result nor betting advice.